• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia
Real Estate

Million-dollar homes will be the nationwide norm sooner than you think

By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Lance Lambert
Lance Lambert
Former Real Estate Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 22, 2021, 10:34 AM ET

Amid the housing frenzy this summer, U.S. home prices notched their largest one-year uptick (19.9%) in tabulated history—coming in well above the high-water mark of 14.1% set in the lead-up to the 2008 crisis.

To keep up with rising home prices, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to announce later this month a sharp increase in the size of home loans that can be federally-backed conventional conforming loans. According to the Wall Street Journal, mortgage firms will begin to offer federally-backed mortgages of up to nearly $1 million in high-cost housing markets come 2022. That’s up from the current maximum of $822,000.

This looming decision is also doing some foreshadowing: When you factor in the historical trajectory of U.S. incomes and the housing market, million-dollar homes becoming the norm in coming decades looks all but certain. Already, median home prices are over or near that threshold in high-income markets like San Jose (currently at a median of $1.25 million); Key West, Fla. ($1.2 million); San Francisco ($995,000); and Los Angeles ($975,000). And before the end of decade, median prices could very well hit that level in places ranging from Boulder, Colo. (currently at $775,000); Boston ($689,000); to Reno, Nev. ($635,000).

“All signs point toward million-dollar homes becoming the norm, rather than the exception in the 2030s,” Nik Shah, CEO of Home.LLC, told Fortune. “Americans are already more than twice as likely to buy a home priced at $500,000 or more, than to buy one under $200,000.”

While million-dollar homes becoming the U.S. norm is all but inevitable, when it’ll happen is a guessing game. As of the third quarter of 2021, the median U.S. home sales price stands at $404,700—something that’d need to increase 147% to hit $1 million. That level of increase is hardly uncommon over a multi-decade period. Over the past 10 years, median home prices are up 81%. Over the past 20 years, they’re up 127%. And if you calculate it from 1991— when the median U.S. home price was just $120,000—we’re up a staggering 237%.

To give us a ballpark for when we can expect this seven-figure norm, Fortune estimated the year median U.S. home prices would hit $1 million if we continue on our historical trajectory. We calculate that since 1980 U.S. home prices have increased on average 4.56% per year. If you apply that annual average rate to the current median home sales price ($404,700), we’d top a $1 million median price in early 2042—or just over 20 years from today.

This thought experiment is, of course, especially important for younger workers. By the time millennials—let alone Gen Zers—reach retirement, million-dollar homes will have likely taken over markets from coast-to-coast.

Subscribe to Fortune Daily to get essential business stories straight to your inbox each morning.

About the Author
By Lance LambertFormer Real Estate Editor
Twitter icon

Lance Lambert is a former Fortune editor who contributes to the Fortune Analytics newsletter.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Real Estate

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • Future 50
  • World’s Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
Sections
  • Finance
  • Leadership
  • Success
  • Tech
  • Asia
  • Europe
  • Environment
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Health
  • Retail
  • Lifestyle
  • Politics
  • Newsletters
  • Magazine
  • Features
  • Commentary
  • Mpw
  • CEO Initiative
  • Conferences
  • Personal Finance
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
About Us
  • About Us
  • Editorial Calendar
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Diversity And Inclusion
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Most Popular

placeholder alt text
Success
In 2026, many employers are ditching merit-based pay bumps in favor of ‘peanut butter raises’
By Emma BurleighFebruary 2, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Politics
Meet the Palm Beach billionaire who paid $2 million for a private White House visit with Trump
By Tristan BoveFebruary 3, 2026
11 hours ago
placeholder alt text
Cybersecurity
Top AI leaders are begging people not to use Moltbook, a social media platform for AI agents: It’s a ‘disaster waiting to happen’
By Eva RoytburgFebruary 2, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Future of Work
‘You’re not a hero, you’re a liability’: Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary warns Gen Z founders to stop glorifying hustle culture
By Jacqueline MunisFebruary 2, 2026
1 day ago
placeholder alt text
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Monday, February 2, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerFebruary 2, 2026
2 days ago
placeholder alt text
Economy
'I just don't have a good feeling about this': Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted and everyone's now looking at the wrong alarm
By Eleanor PringleJanuary 31, 2026
4 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.


Latest in Real Estate

PoliticsDonald Trump
Meet the Palm Beach billionaire who paid $2 million for a private White House visit with Trump
By Tristan BoveFebruary 3, 2026
11 hours ago
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for Feb. 3, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganFebruary 3, 2026
20 hours ago
Personal Financemortgage rates
Current refi mortgage rates report for Feb. 3, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganFebruary 3, 2026
20 hours ago
Personal Financemortgages
Current mortgage rates report for Feb. 3, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganFebruary 3, 2026
20 hours ago
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current ARM mortgage rates report for Feb. 2, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganFebruary 2, 2026
2 days ago
Personal FinanceReal Estate
Current refi mortgage rates report for Feb. 2, 2026
By Glen Luke FlanaganFebruary 2, 2026
2 days ago